Voters in the European Union’s fifth largest member state turned out in numbers not seen since 1919 to elect the members of its two-house, 560-member legislature. The contentious Oct. 15 election saw the conservative government lose its majority to a catch-all coalition of more centrist parties, which ran in opposition to years of democratic backsliding. This new composition is set to completely alter the legislature’s power dynamic and policy endeavors.
October’s election pitted the Law and Justice Party (PiS), led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiechi, against a slew of opposition coalitions from numerous political camps — Civic Coalition, led by Donald Tusk, Third Way and The Left. Tusk, himself a former prime minister, left his post as president of the European Council to mount the centrist Civic Coalition’s bid against PiS.
The right-of-center Third Way and left-of-center Left coalitions worked alongside Civic Coalition in an attempt to topple PiS’s majority in the Sejm, Poland’s lower legislative house. PiS largely maintained the policy stances that initially brought them to power: limiting immigration, standing up to Germany and the European Union, and fending off so-called liberal moral decay. They presented themselves as the only solution to post-pandemic economic stagnation and the refugee crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Civic Coalition, however, ran primarily on anti-PiS attitudes in the wake of democratic backsliding under eight years of PiS rule. Near total control of the government since 2015 allowed PiS to execute an overhaul of the Polish judicial system, public media and system of protections for women and minorities. For Civic Coalition, winning this election meant winning back democracy in Poland. Ultimately, the Polish people agreed with their sentiments.
PiS lost their narrow majority in the 460-seat Sejm, winning only 194 seats, 37 short of a majority and a loss of 41 seats from 2019. Civic Coalition took second place with 157 seats — up 23 seats from their previous result — while Third Way and The Left followed with 65 and 26 seats respectively. Confederation, a right-wing populist and ultranationalist coalition, rounded out the tally with 18 seats.
Despite placing first, PiS would have had to form a coalition to continue leading the government, most likely with Confederation. Party leaders within Confederation, however, expressed no interest in working with PiS, whom they view as too soft on topics like immigration and abortion. Even so, the combined 212 seats of PiS and Confederation would have still fallen short of the 231 needed for a majority.
The formation of a government then fell to the other three groups in parliament. On Nov. 10, Civic Coalition, Third Way and The Left signed a coalition agreement. The pact outlined future proposals and vowed to restore Poland’s standing among its allies, strained in recent years by the eurosceptic PiS government. The plans include restoring legal and civil protections for minorities, combatting Russian aggression in Eastern Europe and repairing Poland’s international democratic reputation.
The political power of far-right parties across Europe has burgeoned since the turn of the century — from Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia and Giorgia Meloni to the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom and Geert Wilders. The protection of everything from immigrants’ rights to trade to liberal elections has been called into question. Tusk’s win has inspired hope that the PiS’s policies will not irreparably tarnish the already-struggling democratic norms of Poland and the EU.
Prior to the new parliament’s first session, held Nov. 13, President Andrzej Duda of the PiS endorsed Morawiechi for a second term as prime minister despite the party lacking a majority. Expectedly, Morawiechi lost the vote of confidence needed to secure the prime ministership in a vote of 190 to 266. Ultimately, the Dec. 11 deadline to select a new prime minister saw Civic Coalition present Tusk as their nominee. The majority coalition of Civic Coalition, Third Way and The Left was able to secure the ministership for Tusk despite concerns about ideological infighting.
Assuaging concerns about the new coalition’s governing capability, a Dec. 6 energy bill provided hope that the parties would be united by more than just their shared opposition to PiS. The Sejm passed an amended bill that would extend a freeze on energy prices and push forward more progressive changes to Poland’s coal-reliant energy system.
Tusk also announced his picks for cabinet as of Dec. 8, which included a variety of faces familiar to Polish politics — for example, former Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski will again coordinate Polish interests internationally. Tusk’s cabinet will also see a few newcomers, as well as the creation of the new Ministry of Industry. This new ministry is yet another demonstration of the coalition’s fundamental renovation of the Polish political system.
PiS and President Duda certainly aren’t welcoming the new government with open arms. Party leaders have conveyed discontent with the new coalition, with Morawiechi asserting that Tusk and his partners do not “know how to respond” to the challenges Poland faces.
Nonetheless, the new government has expressed hope that they will remain steadfast in their pursuit of rebuilding Poland’s democracy. Poland’s western allies have communicated a similar optimism at the government’s determination to revitalize its global standing. More broadly, Poland has tempered the trend of the far-right’s triumphs across Europe. Proponents of Western liberal democracy contend that the showing in Poland is an optimistic but precarious foretelling of a rebuke of the far right.
