Support for Portugal’s far-right Chega party surged following the March 10 legislative election in a rebuke of the current government led by the center-left Socialist Party (PS).
Although Luís Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) emerged victorious with 29.1% of the vote, Chega’s ascendence grabbed headlines. The party’s vote share jumped dramatically to 18.1% from 7.1% in 2022. Voters sharply rebuked Pedro Nuno Santos’s PS over economic and immigration policy, with support plummeting from 41.4% in 2022 to 28.7%.
Many right-wing populist European parties praised Chega’s performance, while party leader André Ventura satisfactorily declared the end of two-party domination in Portuguese politics. The result reinforced predictions of a significant rightward shift in European politics in the lead-up to European Parliament elections. Set to take place this summer, the results will determine the course of European Union policy until 2029.
Jeffrey Anderson, a professor in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service, discussed the significance of Portugal’s dictatorship in the mid-20th century prior to democratization in the 1970s.
“What is unusual is the success of a right-wing party in a country that, because of its recent history of authoritarianism, had heretofore proven inhospitable to this brand of politics,” Anderson wrote to The Georgetown Review. “In this sense, Portugal has now gone the way of Spain, another former authoritarian country that, until the recent success of Vox, had seemed immune to right-wing populism.”
Anderson elaborated on commonalities between Portugal and the broader European community.
“What is happening in Portugal is similar in form to developments elsewhere in Europe and, quite frankly, beyond (e.g. the United States),” Anderson said. “The content may differ from place to place, but the style of politics is quite similar — asserting the forgotten needs of the ‘real’ people against an entrenched, self-interested elite.”
Ian Cruz (SFS ’25), a Georgetown student and Portuguese-American dual citizen who voted in the election, attributed Chega’s success largely to public dissatisfaction.
“Many people are disillusioned with the status quo as Portugal continues to fall behind former Eastern bloc countries in terms of economic development,” Cruz wrote to The Georgetown Review. “It must also be said that a vote for Chega could also be viewed as a protest vote against the current system meaning Chega represents discontent and frustration — and doesn’t necessarily represent an ideological shift to the hard right.”
Germany is another clear example of this trend, where support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has burgeoned since 2021. That year’s election saw AfD garner 10% of the vote and place in a distant fifth position — recent polls, however, predict a commanding 20% vote share for the far-right party in the election to be held before October 2025, second only to the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU).
The surge in AfD’s popularity, like that of Portugal’s Chega, has been partially attributed to frustration with the ruling centrist coalition’s economic, climate and immigration policies. AfD messaging frequently stokes anti-immigrant sentiments in Germany, home to the largest immigrant population in Europe.
Eric Langenbacher, a teaching professor in the department of government, emphasized the confluence of anti-immigration and anti-establishment sentiments across Europe.
“In short, all these societies have become more multicultural, and some voters resent this,” Langenbacher wrote to The Georgetown Review. “There is clear anti-establishment sentiment in all of these countries, fueling votes for ‘outsider’ parties.”
Recent scandals have worsened Portuguese public dissatisfaction with PS policy. In November 2023, a public prosecutor’s investigation implicated the PS government and cabinet in the mishandling of energy funds, including direct references to Prime Minister António Costa himself. Costa resigned shortly after news came to light of his possible involvement, but the PS was unable to evade the consequences. Since then, disillusionment with both the PS and AD has fueled the growing Chega base.
“I think it is the lingering stench of corruption that has affected both mainstream parties — and this is not implausibly blamed on leadership,” Langenbacher said.
The far right is widely expected to fare well in the upcoming European Parliament elections as frustration with centrist politics has pushed many Europeans to the right. Anderson said the policy repercussions associated with their success will likely be outshone by cultural repercussions.
“The far right will acquit itself well in the June European Parliament elections, no doubt. But they will fall short of having enough seats to run the show in the parliament,” Anderson said. “The far right in Brussels/Strasbourg will be in a similar position to most of the far right parties in Europe at the national level — noisy and influential, but not pulling the levers of power.”
Cruz expressed conviction that these parties would not be going anywhere any time soon.
“I think this trend will continue until these parties are taken seriously because a cordon sanitaire will only bolster these parties’ anti-establishment credentials, making them more popular,” Cruz said. “Increased collaboration among these rightist parties will only strengthen them as they learn from the successes and failures of others in order to employ a winning strategy.”
In Portugal, however, Chega’s success has raised concerns about the formation of an effective government. While the Portuguese president has invited Montenegro to form a government, AD has expressed little desire to partner with either PS or Chega. This reluctance effectively guarantees a minority government, which may further embolden Chega’s popularity amid renewed assertions of inefficiency under the PS and AD.
“The rise of a strong and viable third party presents a unique opportunity to fundamentally transform Portuguese politics,” Cruz said. “People want change and CHEGA is the only party who can realistically bring about this change given the current state of play.”
