BILANI: The Slaying of an Embattled Iranian General who ‘Killed as he was Killed,’ and the Path Forward in the Middle East

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Editor’s Note: This is a developing conflict and is sure to continue expanding.

In a dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East, a U.S. airstrike ordered by President Donald Trump has killed Iran’s most high-ranking military Commander. General Qassem Soleimani was the Commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard (IRG), a Special Ops unit within the IRG responsible for Iranian extraterritorial foreign military operations that answers directly to the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The airstrike occurred near Baghdad International Airport and also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Deputy Commander of Iran-backed militias in Iraq known as Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as well as five others, including the PMF’s airport protocol officer, Mohammed Reda, Iraqi officials reported.

Through callousness, ruthlessness, and a robust understanding of the long-running shadow war running across the Middle East⁠—of which he’s credited as a key architect⁠—Maj. Gen. Soleimani has evaded death by enemies for decades. His circumvention of U.S. authorities and other adversaries came while facilitating the building, organizing, funding, and deployment of constellations of Shi’ite militias and mounting insurrections throughout the Levant, from Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, to the broader Middle East arena, in Yemen and Afghanistan. For a long time, Soleimani was considered a perennial threat to peace in the Middle East. Given the destabilized conditions in the Middle East, he quickly rose to become Iran’s second most influential leader, as an official Commander of Iran’s Quds Forces and as the unofficial Commander of a proliferation of proxy militias and allied politicians throughout the Middle East, including the beleaguered President of Syria, Bashar Al-Assad. Through his effectiveness, he leaped out of the shadows of proxy warfare and into the regional and international limelight as a crucial figure in keeping President Assad at the helm in Syria, and in exporting the Iranian regime’s influence beyond its territorial borders.

Ironically, Soleimani is regarded as the architect behind the 2005 assassination of the late Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri, an assassination that rocked Beirut to its core, not only for its killing of Hariri and 21 others when a truck bomb exploded near his convoy in Lebanon, but which served as a catalyst for the Lebanese Cedar Revolution, a grass-roots movement that saw the eventual withdrawal of Syrian troops in Lebanon that had occupied the country since 1976. The relevance of this situational irony is that Soleimani met his infernal demise in the same way he is believed to have engineered the late Premier’s assassination, through a fatal convoy blast. Many herald Soleimani’s death as a fateful avenging for his plot to slay Lebanon’s former Premier, affectionately regarded by his countrymen as Mr. Lebanon. 

Soleimani’s tenure contributed to his formation of governments; direction of acute policy that espouses and sustains Iranian dominance throughout the region; and for decades attacking, undermining, and evading the U.S. military. He has been decried by the U.S. as personally responsible for the deaths of thousands, including the killing and maiming of hundreds of American soldiers. Now that Soleimani has been eliminated from Iran’s calculus in Iraq, a nation that has been shaped more by him than any other leader since the demise of its former leader, Saddam Hussein, it remains to be seen what will come next from this major escalation in the standoff between Washington and Tehran. The rapidly escalating standoff by these two nuclear powers will only intensify, and these are the things you need to know about this bitter rivalry that has careened from harsh rhetoric to punitive action:

• Friday, January 3^rd of 2020:
  • Qassem Soleimani, the Commander of Iran’s Quds military force and one of the most high-ranking military Commanders’ in the Islamic Republic was killed early Friday in an airstrike in Baghdad, which led to scores of supporters marching Saturday in a Karbala funeral procession through the Iraqi capital.
  • President Trump, in a brief statement on Friday, announced the action was taken “to stop a war,” and not “to start a war.” He stated that Soleimani “was plotting imminent and sinister attacks on American diplomats and military personnel, but we caught him in the act and terminated him.” 
  • The Department of Defense lambasted Soleimani for the killing of hundreds of Americans, and indicated that he orchestrated recent attacks on coalition bases in Iraq, that killed an American defense contractor, and was planning on coordinating efforts to attack U.S. assets in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.
  • The strike that left Qassem Soleimani slain caused an uproar citing that “the U.S. bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism” by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.
  • Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei acclaimed Soleimani “the international face of resistance,” and declared three days of public mourning for the General’s death.
  • The Department of State informed Americans in Iraq to depart the country immediately, and U.S. troops have been deployed throughout the region and are on high alert.
• Saturday, January 4^th of 2020:
  • President Trump tweeted on Saturday, that the U.S. has identified 52 Iranian sites, representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran in 1979, that as targets should Iran retaliate for the strike that took the life of its revered Commander, Qassem Soleimani.
• Sunday, January 5^th of 2020:
  • The Iraqi Parliament approved a resolution calling on its government to end U.S. military presence in the country, without the support of Sunni and Kurds, within the legislative body. Iranian militias have also begun firing rockets at bases throughout Iraq.
  • U.S. officials are divided over the strike, with Republicans lauding President Trump’s act while Democrats tempestuously assail his actions and warn of their impending ramifications. 
  • The Secretary General of the Iran-backed militia, Hezbollah in Lebanon threatened harsh retaliation towards U.S. forces in a fiery address on the militia’s state of affairs.
  • A cyber-attack on The Federal Depository Library Program (FDLP), a U.S. government program created to make U.S. federal government publications available to the public, has been defaced by pro-Iranian hackers as a warning citing a line at the bottom that read: “Hacked by Iran Cyber Security Group Hackers. This is only small part of Iran’s cyber ability! We’re always ready.” 
  • Iran hoisted and unfurled the ‘Red Flag’ of revenge, vowing to avenge Qassem Soleimani’s slaying.
  • Iran entirely abandons the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known commonly as the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal.
• Monday, January 6^th of 2020:
  • The bodies of General Soleimani and Militia Commander Mahdi al-Muhandis arrive in Tehran for what is being called the largest gathering in the history of the nation, and one of the largest funerals in the modern history of the world. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prayed over the caskets of Soleimani and others slain in the attack and is seen weeping and markedly upset.
• Tuesday, January 7^th of 2020:
  • At least 56 people have died and scores more were injured in a stampede that broke out at Qassem Soleimani’s funeral.
  • Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations (U.N.) sent a letter to the U.N. Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council decrying the missile strikes as a “measured and proportionate” act of “self defense.”
  • The United States denied Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif a visa that would have allowed him to attend a U.N. Security Council meeting in New York on Thursday, alleging that there wasn’t enough time to process the request.

• Wednesday, January 8^th of 2020:
  • In Operation Martyr Soleimani, in the early hours of Wednesday local time (late Tuesday in Washington), Iran retaliated by firing 16 short-range ballistic missiles from three locations in Iran to two bases in Iraq housing American troops. Eleven of those missiles landed at Al Asad, one landed at Erbil, and the other four failed.
  • In a late night tweet (EST), President Trump states that “All is well!” and says that he will deliver a statement on Wednesday morning.
  • Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei says “we slapped them on the face” and that “military action is not enough.” 
  • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, attributed the lack of casualties not to a lack of intent on Iran’s part but rather to the military’s own early warning structures, and bunkers. 
  • Pelosi announced the U.S. House of Representatives’ intent to vote Thursday on limiting Trump’s war powers on Iran.
  • In a White House address, President Trump reneged on further military escalation against Iran and called for renewed diplomacy as the contentious situation of the past six days ameliorated in the face of an Iranian missile attack that resulted in no casualties.
  • While President Trump assailed Tehran’s regime of “terror, murder, mayem,” noting that it will not be tolerated, he defended his decision to order the killing of Qassem Soleimani and contended that as long as he is President of the United States, “Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.” 
  • President Trump dropped his threats of escalation of military force, instead opting for increased economic sanctions, changing his tenor to a call for a diplomatic resolution to the ensuing conflict between Washington and Tehran; leaving both nations in a standoff.

Author’s Analysis:

Soleimani will be remembered for creating an outer layer of armor that protected Iran, while promoting its cause vicariously through militias throughout the Middle East, most notably in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. That network is currently embittered with the public embarrassment that this airstrike has been for them and are likely to be plotting revenge, as the Iranian regime has made so clear. Iran’s foreign ministry has condemned the U.S. killing of General Soleimani as a “blatant” violation of its sovereignty. The Iraqi parliament intends and has voted in favor of expelling U.S. troops following the U.S. airstrike that terminated Soleimani, and President Donald Trump upholds that “the world is a safer place” following the death of Major General Qassem Soleimani. Foreign leaders have expressed dismay and jubilance with a reaction falling within their sectarian identity. Riyadh and Tel Aviv lauded the act, while other state and non-state opponents have denounced it. It has brought warring factions together and has brought countries and groups that don’t normally support Iran back together. U.K.’s Premier, Boris Johnson has warned that “all calls for retaliation or reprisals will simply lead to more violence in the region,” he further cautions “we will not lament his death,” he adds that the U.K. “is in close contact with all sides to encourage de-escalation.” With many opponents of Iran expressing praise, many allies have voiced consternation for the act, which many say could lead to another World War.

At the end of the day, it’s the Iranian people who will decide what will happen in Iran, and nobody else. And the international response needs to be as such, to feature convergence between the U.S., Europe, Russia, and of course, the Middle East. This convergence is becoming more and more likely today because the United States has learned from its past excursions that we are living in a multilateral world and we now understand that unilateral solutions will not be sustained in the Middle East. The Middle East is not a monolith; rather, it is a dynamic, multinational, multifaceted region where ‘one size fits all’ solutions are destined to fail.

Nevertheless, I believe that the United States must lead. Europe is ready to listen and to cooperate in this regard, Moscow also shares the same interest in having a safe and stable Middle East. This is because Europe doesn’t desire a mass migration from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Similarly, Russia doesn’t want radical extremism to emerge from the Caucasus or Central Asia. So, the approach to this multifaceted issue ought to be a multilateral approach that posits the conditions of this escalating standoff to where it may be in the interests of Europe and Russia to act multilaterally with the United States, to help stabilize the region.

The convergence of our national interests, with those of Europe, Russia, and most notably, the MENA region in question, will benefit all parties involved if they converge. We have seen it before, and we need not experience it again. Unilateralism has not succeeded with respect to the Middle East in the past, and it surely will not succeed in 2020. A look no further than Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrates all the shortcomings of a unilateral approach to foreign policy. To invoke former Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri, once more, he has famously said, “you may win the battle, but you may not win the war.” The United States is fortunate to have the military power to enter any nation with its forces and to be in control within a month. But again, winning the war is not the problem facing our country in this present moment of time. Instead, it is the issue of winning and maintaining peace. Our military strategy has long been to ‘win the hearts and minds,’ and to prevail not by the use of unwarranted superior force, but by emotional and intellectual appeals to sway supporters of the other side. The U.S. military capacity exceeds Iran’s military force in every possible way and thus, an invasion would be a long drawn out affair in our favor. But, if decades of difficult conflicts around the world have shown anything, it is that a superior armory could only achieve so much. 

The goal is world peace; that must be our prime objective. As the leader of the free world, we have the power to preserve peace, and to do that requires strength. This objective of preserving peace is a responsibility unique to our country and one that we cannot evade in our role as a leader of the free world. Thus, the obligation of maintaining the peace falls squarely on us, and to achieve peace, sometimes requires strength. Albert Einstein once said, “peace cannot be kept by force, it can only be achieved by understanding.” No doubt, President Trump has exercised restraint and resolve with respect to Tehran but when called for, he has demonstrated strength, namely with the slaying of Iran’s most powerful Commander. President Ronald Reagan once eloquently stated, “we know only too well that war comes not when the forces of freedom are strong, it is when they are weak that tyrants are tempted.” Of all the foreign policy objectives we seek, our primary goal ought to be the establishment of lasting world peace. That said, the United States should always be willing to negotiate and to wield the force of diplomacy as long as it holds the promise of changing the course of conflict while advancing the cause of peace. Our past record demonstrates that Iraq, much like Afghanistan, was not a go-in, go-out situation, and we’ve seen miscalculated political ambitions destabilize the Middle East and forge new enemies throughout the region, from state actors to non-state agitators such as ISIS. Fortunately, we’ve realized this and the associated costs, which range from innocent lives to trillions of dollars and resources lost, along with instability and fragile democracies, run amok.

President Trump has tirelessly engaged Iran through diplomatic channels but recently has located the political will to engage Iran, militarily. Moving forward, a multilateral coordinated approach with allies to the region is necessary. With that, a sharing of the burden of maintaining the peace, and a convergence of political will could mend the present situation in the Middle East. As a global leader, the United States has an obligation to itself, to its citizens, and to the people of the world to never let the malign forces of the world destroy the prospects of enduring peace. In closing, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo maintains, “America doesn’t seek regime change, America seeks the Iranian regime to change its ways.” And, in the coming days and weeks, as the people and leaders of the region navigate through the rhetoric and find their voice while working toward a sustainable future, and one that can be charted with peace and for the sake of peace, will there be a thorough, robust, and greater convergence of political will and social values between the Middle East, and the broader transatlantic community.

Said Bilani is a Contributor.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official or personal position of the Editorial Board, Contributors, or Business Staff of The Georgetown Review.