Last Sunday, Viktor Orban resoundingly won yet another victory in Hungary’s parliamentary elections. Support for Orban’s party, Fidesz, increased by nearly five percent from the last election in 2018. Fidesz also solidified its parliamentary super majority by gaining two seats, bringing its total to 135 of the 199. This comes despite the predictions of international observers and polls, many of whom predicted a tighter election or even an opposition win. Looking forward, Orban’s resounding victory will have major implications for Europe.
As mentioned, many who paid close attention to the Hungarian elections were surprised by the magnitude of Orban’s victory over the opposition coalition. While most believed that Orban would win his fourth consecutive term, his 18% margin came as a surprise. Aggregate polling placed Fidesz with around 50%, while the United Opposition was projected to receive around 45% of the vote. While Fidesz did not necessarily outperform its projected totals, the opposition vastly underperformed.
Some have attributed Orban’s reelection to his recent campaign promise for neutral policies toward Russia. Like other Central and Eastern European nations, Hungary imports the majority of its oil and gas from Russia–in this case, 90%.
While Orban describes his policy towards Russia as non-interventionist, the opposition compared him to Putin in the run up to the election. In response, Orban has painted the opposition politicians as pro-war radicals who seek a conflict with Russia. This message resonated among many Hungarians, who would not like to see energy prices skyrocket.
In terms of voter composition, Fidesz ran up the margins in rural areas. Hungarians living beyond the Trianon border–Hungary’s current border as established in 1920–also supported Orban due to their conservative lean. In 2011, they were granted citizenship under a change in the laws which allowed any one who speaks Hungarian and had a parent within Hungarian borders before 1920 or between 1941 and 1945 to be a citizen. This law allowed for Orban to solidify his power as these groups supported his nationalistic tendencies.
Meanwhile, the United Opposition won the city of Budapest. Its voter base tends to be younger and more educated than the remaining electorate; this group has a diaspora spread throughout the rest of Europe and particularly in the U.S. Orban’s illiberal tendencies, opposition to immigration, and anti-LGBT policies disuaded this constituency.
While Orban’s dominant victory was a surprise to many, it will not change the European status quo, given Orban’s previous three terms as prime minister. He has a lengthy résumé of opposition to Brussels, which will only persist in the next four years.
Orban has used his opposition to Brussels to play an outsized role in European politics. For example, during the refugee crisis following the Syrian civil war, Hungary led the way in weakening Schengen to construct a border fence that would stop the flow of migrants through the nation.
Sunday’s election also has implications for NATO’s goal of Western solidarity, a consequence of Orban’s sympathies towards Putin’s regime in Russia. Furthermore, Poland’s leading party, Law and Justice (PiS), has acted similarly and faces electoral challenges just like those of Fidesz, frequently aligning itself with Hungary in the European parliament. So what does Orban’s victory mean for the European Union and domestic politics in other similar countries?
First, Viktor Orban’s win means a continued lack of consensus on EU policies and mandates. In his victory speech, Orban announced that he victory could be seen “from the moon and Brussels”. His opposition to Brussels is well known to the vast majority of Hungarians, and those representing Hungary in the European parliament are largely Fidesz members. In the past, Orban resisted EU mandates on everything from LGBT rights to migration and climate change, and there is no doubt that he will continue to do so in the future. The EU has accused Orban of corruption, political cronyism, and attempting to seize totalitarian power; Orban’s re-election indicates that change will not be coming to Hungary anytime soon.
Alleged democratic backsliding is a concern to all of Europe, not just Hungary. Hungary’s strongest ally in the European Parliament, Poland, has also been accused of democratic backsliding. Many EU actions, including punishments for perceived violations of European values, need a unanimous vote excluding the offending nation. With the political alliance between Hungary and Poland on many of these issues, they have essentially avoided all potential retribution for any infractions they may have committed. This falls short on issues relating to the war in Ukraine as well, where Poland and Hungary have differing opinions.
Hungary’s voting patterns and political situation are very similar to those of other countries in Eastern Europe. For instance, like Hungary, PiS has opposition groups attempting to unite against its rule. Parties, such as Poland2050 and the Civic Coalition, have acted as big tent oppositions to PiS, including many parties with vastly different platforms in some cases. As the current polls continue to show close margins in Poland, it will be interesting to see if these centrist and big tent political parties underperform in the upcoming 2023 election just as the United Coalition did in Hungary.
Hungary’s foriegn policy under Orban will likely see a continued dovish stance on Russian aggression. Under Orban, Hungary was one of the last EU countries to endorse Russia’s removal from the SWIFT banking system. Additionally, with Orban continuing to purchase hydrocarbons from Russia, Fidesz’s victory means that Western solidarity against Russia will be difficult to achieve.
While Orban’s predictable victory will likely leave the balance of power in the European Union unchanged, his influence as an opposition leader in the European Parliament and his differing stance on the war in Ukraine deserves close attention in the coming years.
