With the 2022 Midterm Elections approaching, it is worth taking a look at the redistricting that has taken place as a result of the 2020 census, and what it means for both parties in their efforts to control the house.
Maps for Missouri, Florida and New Hampshire are still mired in the approval process, and 6 states only have one representative; this leaves 41 states with finalised congressional districts. The results appear promising for Republicans, with several red states in the South gaining House seats and traditional Democratic strongholds in the northeast and midwest losing them. Republicans also controlled the redrawing of 43% of congressional seats, standing in contrast to the mere 17% controlled by Democrats.
Despite this advantage, Republicans lost 6 districts with a conservative lean, while five once-competitive districts are no longer up for grabs. The true winner this time around is thus the Democratic Party, which gained 10 left-leaning districts—an outcome of unexpectedly aggressive Democrat gerrymandering in New York, for example, and court-ordered redraws in states like Ohio and North Carolina. These results are still tentative, as demonstrated last week when Florida Governor Ron Desantis vetoed a plan proposed by his legislature presumably for not including enough surefire Republican districts.
If everything holds steady, the final numbers will be 181 Democrat-leaning seats, 182 Republican-leaning seats, and 34 competitive seats, with 38 yet to be drawn. Incumbents on both sides will certainly be pleased with these results; for many, the elimination of competitive seats means they must only worry about opposition from within their own party. Now, however, voters are even more starved for choice.
